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Israel's Real Threat Is Demography, Not Damascus

Israel's Real Threat Is Demography, Not Damascus

     

             

 

"If my doctor told me I had only six minutes to live, I wouldn't brood. I'd type a little faster," quipped famed Russian writer Isaac Asimov. And with the latest population surveys being released across the globe, it is clear that the peoples of the West better start typing faster.The West - its people, its culture, its history, and yes, even its faith, is dying. Diagnosed with a secular tumor that feeds off of a selfish, if not perverse, sense of hedonism, the civilization that has bestowed to the world all of its greatest advancements is preparing to take out its obituary.
 

Western nations are no longer reproducing. The nations of Europe, once the core of Christendom and the heartbeat of the West, have become cultural cemeteries - both literally and figuratively. Not one European nation, save Muslim Albania, has a birthrate higher than 2.1 children per woman, the rate that is needed to sustain a civilization.
 

Spain has an anemic birthrate of 1.07 and Germany is not far behind with a rate of 1.3. Italy, the nation that surrounds the Vatican and birthed a number of Popes, is struggling with a rate of 1.2.
 

And then there is Mother Russia, who is now barren and bare.
 

Faced with a prognosis that will claim 33 million Russians by 2050, a number greater than those extinguished by Uncle Joe, Russia is in a do-or-die situation. While it is true that many nations have undergone proportionate population losses in the past and survived, such countries had no problems replacing those whom they lost. This is not the case in Russia.
 

At the same time the number of Russians dying is increasing, the number of Russians under the age of 15 will drop by 10 million by 2050. Where has the 10 million gone? Most of them have gone to the abortion chamber, for Russia is a nation that averages 4 abortions per woman, and the remainder have been sacrificed on the altar of personal indulgence, i.e. career and contraception.
 

Put simply, the Russian people, not unlike their counterparts in the West, have opted to forgo their patriotic obligations for their personal opulence. For Moscow, this means trouble.
 

While Russians are dying, their neighbors and adversaries to the south, the Chinese, are exploding - anticipating 250 million more people by 2050. Being that only 8 million Russians live east of the Urals, and the vast majority of them sporting gray hair, how long before Beijing decides to reclaim the Siberian provinces she lost when she was weak and Russia was at its apex?
 

The West has been its own worst enemy, as our forefathers quest to create a utopian society for their children - a society with no wants and many desires - has backfired. It has created a people who have placed selfish desires before societal duties and love of country with love of currency. We have become a people so blinded by our own interests that we no longer can see those waiting to take our place.
 

As Western peoples die without replenishing the soil, those nations that surround them, most of them hostile to our views, are experiencing a population boom. While the tide recedes off the Western shore, it rises in the East - and in this case, the East is the heart of Islam.
 

Talk to most of the policy wonks in the White House and the greatest threat to Israel is Islamofascism. Hamas, the Muslim Brotherhood and those supporting them in Damascus and Tehran are the main foes to Tel Aviv, and such forces must be stopped at all costs.
 

How do we stop such forces of hatred and save Israel from its impending doom? Democracy, says the neocon. The mantra goes like this - if the seeds of democracy bloom in Mesopotamia, level heads will prevail and peace will be achieved. For the most, such a theory might work if the political field being cultivated was in Athens and not Anbar Province.
 

Democracy is a Western concept that takes a degree of Western thought to work. Iraq, and the majority of the Middle East, is anything but Western. And even more disturbing, while the neocons tinker with nation building on the banks of the Tigris and Euphrates, they miss the larger picture - the Arab people are reproducing and Israelis cannot keep up.
 

It took the United States over two centuries, a bloody civil war, two world wars, and a cold war that brought us to the brink of disaster, to maintain its democracy. This from a people schooled in classical thought.
 

How long will it be before Iraq is a flourishing democracy? Ten, 15, 20 years? And if the answer is 25 years, it is 25 years too long.
 

Breitbart reported last week on a population study released by the Jerusalem Institute for Israel Studies. According to the news service, the study found, "At current growth rates, Jews will compromise 60 percent of (Jerusalem's) population by 2020 compared to 66 percent now."
The bad new for Israel is not over, as Breitbart explains, "Over the past 40 years the Arab population has grown by 257 percent from 68,000 to its current level of 245,000, while the number of Jews living in the city by 140 percent - from 200,000 to 475,000." Translation - even if the West wins the battle of ideas, Islam is winning the war of demography.
 

This dilemma, though, is much larger than Jerusalem, as the holy city is merely reflecting a larger pattern in the cradle of civilization.
 

By 2025, Israel's population is expected to increase from 6.2 million to 8.3 million (and this figure also includes Arab births within Israel). As for its neighbors, there will be a population explosion.
 

Jordan will almost double its population, from 6.7 million to 12.1 million, and Egypt will jump from 68.5 million to 95.6 million. Syria, the alleged sponsor of Hamas, will grow from 16.1 million people to 26.3 million.
 

And as for Iran, the despot of the desert? The population is estimated to be 94.5 million, an increase of 27 million people.
 

The quest for democracy in the Middle East, and the nation building such a commitment requires, will not save Israel from Islam, it merely expends unnecessary blood and resources to avoid the inevitable - peace must be achieved through diplomacy, not war.
 

As the Arab population explodes and the Israeli population is overwhelmed, the demand for land will increase. It is no wonder that Yitzhak Rabin and Ehud Barak opted to trade land for peace, as they saw the handwriting on the wall.
 

Israel is facing an enemy that has a historic grievance against it and has a fighting faith to fuel its radicalism. Having a democratic Iraq will not change this fact.
 

Is there anything Israel, and America, can do to fend off Muhammad's men? This is a good question with an answer many may not like.
 

"As Golda Meir once said, Israel never had a better friend than Richard Nixon, who rescued her nation in the 1973 Yom Kippur War," wrote Pat Buchanan in the Death of the West. But as Buchanan recalls, Nixon was not blind to obstacles that lay before the Israeli people and understood that "a statesman must take the long view."
When Nixon was asked, in 1973, what the future held for history, Buchanan explained, "(Nixon) extended his right fist, thumb up, in the manner of a Roman emperor passing sentence on a gladiator, and slowly turned his thumb over and down."
While this author does not share the same view as Tricky Dick, he does know that wasting time, lives and energy fighting wars that are not our own and cultivating democracy in an inhospitable climate is not the way to ensure the survival of a nation placed at the foot of the lion's den.
 

Whether the neocons like it or not, demography, not democracy, is going to give Damascus, Tehran and Riyadh a seat at the table. How they receive us will depend on how we treated them.
Tomorrow's peace is through today's diplomacy.


Joe Murray can be reached at jmurray@thebulletin.us

05/14/2007  By: Joe Murray , The Bulletin